(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Key TakeawaysWashington has denied Iranian state television reports claiming that a framework agreement has been reached to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and to lift the US maritime blockade on Iranian vessels within one month. Today’s Focus: Key US economic indicators are set to influence the Federal Reserve’s June rate decision. The market expects the first-quarter GDP growth rate to hold at 2%. A downward revision may heighten fears of an economic slowdown and affect rate hike expectations. For the April Core PCE Price Index, a rise to 3.3% year-on-year is anticipated, with month-on-month rates steady at around 0.3%. A reading below expectations could ease rate hike pressures, while a higher figure might increase bets on tightening, potentially impacting gold and US stocks. |
Global Market Review 28/05/2026
Amid conflicting signals on the progress of ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the US, the three major US stock indices traded in narrow ranges throughout yesterday’s session but still closed at fresh record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was boosted by gains in healthcare and consumer stocks, while the AI sector was stable with a slight uptick. The Dow rose 0.36%, the S&P 500 gained 0.02%, and the Nasdaq inched up 0.07%.
Treasury yields continued to decline, while the US Dollar Index recorded a moderate, consecutive rebound to a three-day high. Gold prices fell to a two-month low, weighed down by expectations of tighter monetary policy to curb rising inflation. Amid the latest developments in the US-Iran situation, oil prices fell further to their lowest level in over a month, with WTI crude closing down more than 4%.
Key Events Today:
- 15:20 ECB President Lagarde Speech ***
- 17:00 EU Economic Sentiment MAY **
- 20:10 US Building Permits APR **
- 20:30 US GDP & PCE Price Index 2nd Est Q1 ***
- 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index APR ***
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 22:00 US New Home Sales APR **
May 29th
- 00:00 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **
- 07:30 JP Unemployment Rate APR **
- 15:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate MAY **
- 16:20 BoE Gov Bailey Speech ***
- 20:00 EU GERMANY CPI Prel MAY ***
- 20:30 CA GDP MoM MAR **
Markets Analysis 28/05/2026
- Resistance: 1.1655/1.1676
- Support: 1.1600/1.1584
Amid geopolitical uncertainty, the EUR/USD weakened for a second consecutive day yesterday, though the decline remained marginal. In Thursday’s early Asian session, the pair is trading around 1.1620.
Analyst View: Technically, the exchange rate has been hovering around the 10-day moving average in recent days. Today’s US PCE price index may be the key catalyst for a breakout. If the pair breaks higher, focus will shift to resistance at the 20-day moving average near 1.1676. Conversely, a downside would shift attention to support below the 1.1600 level.
Bias: Short-term bearish
- Resistance:1.3480/1.3522
- Support: 1.3386/1.3343
GBP/USD continued its downward trend as the US dollar strengthened, amid market caution over ongoing US-Iran negotiations. Earlier, softer-than-expected UK inflation and employment data had prompted traders to trim their expectations for near-term Bank of England rate hikes.
Analyst View: The pair traded below the 10-day moving average this morning. If today’s closure confirms a breach of this level, the target will shift towards the 1.3386/1.3343 range. Tonight’s US PCE price index and tomorrow’s speech by BOE Governor Bailey are key events that will determine the trend.
Bias: Short-term bearish
- Resistance: 159.73/160.08
- Support: 159.39/159.06
As the US dollar strengthens, the yen has fallen to a near four-week low, approaching levels seen when Japanese authorities intervened last month. Investors are assessing the impact of renewed tensions in Iran.
Analyst View: After two consecutive days of gains, the exchange rate is expected to see moderate upside momentum today. A cautious stance is advised as the pair approaches the 160 handle, with attention on whether key price levels and the US PCE price index trigger increased short-term volatility.
Bias: Cautiously bullish
- Resistance: 95.00/96.52
- Support: 84.75/82.26
WTI crude prices plunged more than 4% yesterday, closing below $90, the lowest level since April 22. Investors are awaiting the latest updates on a US-Iran agreement framework that could end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Analyst View: WTI crude has extended its losses, breaking below $90. With bears still in control, prices may test April’s lows, signalling a potential move towards $80, unless news flow reverses in favour of the bulls.
Bias: Short-term bearish
- Resistance: 4541/4572
- Support: 4394/4363
- Resistance: 76.72/78.75
- Support: 72.17/70.17
Amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace negotiations, gold prices continued to fall yesterday, hovering near a two-month low and testing the $4,400 level during the session. In early Thursday trading, gold remained under pressure near $4,430 as the market looked ahead to today’s US April PCE inflation data to gauge the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.
Analyst View: Gold broke below its week-long range-bound pattern yesterday, shifting the focus to the potential for continued near-term downside pressure towards levels below $4,400. This is especially relevant if US inflationary pressures continue to intensify, making the late-March support range a key area to watch.
Bias: Short-term bearish
- Resistance: 50806/50920
- Support: 50437/50321
Gains in healthcare and consumer stocks pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a fresh record close on Wednesday, as investors weighed lingering uncertainty over the peace negotiations to end the war in Iran while awaiting today’s US PCE data.
Analyst View: Dow hit a record high at yesterday’s close; however, attention is focused on the intraday high of 50,834, which coincides with this past Monday’s peak. A breakout above this level is required today to sustain momentum towards new highs. The US PCE price index will also be a critical factor in determining the Dow’s direction at these elevated levels.
Bias: Cautious at highs
- Resistance: 30286/30786
- Support: 29499/29006
The AI-led rally in US stocks slowed somewhat yesterday; however, Nasdaq still recorded another record high, marking a slight rebound. Despite mixed signals, the market continues to price in the possibility of progress between the US and Iran.
Analyst View: Nasdaq reached a new high yesterday, but gains were modest, reflecting market caution ahead of tonight’s US PCE price index. If the data beats expectations and fuels expectations of a Fed rate hike, it could hamper the index’s performance at these elevated levels.
Bias: Cautious at highs
- Resistance: 77007/77943
- Support: 71849/70945
Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Wednesday amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace talks and heavy outflows from crypto-focused exchange-traded funds.
Analyst View: BTC/USD extended its downside yesterday, closing near last week’s lows. Intraday focus is on whether the pair will break below the key support at 74,150; a confirmed breach would open further room to the downside, potentially testing support in the 71,849/70,945 range.
Bias: Short-term bearish
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