(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryIran said on Wednesday that it is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal that could formally end the war. Washington expects Tehran to respond within 48 hours, but key issues remain unresolved, including U.S. demands for Iran to suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Today, investors will continue to watch for progress on the peace agreement. U.S. initial jobless claims will also be in focus, with the figure expected to rise to 205K from 189K previously. A higher-than-expected reading may point to further weakness in the labor market and offset optimism from the stronger ADP employment data. U.S. March construction spending is expected to return to growth. |
Global Market Review 07/05/2026
U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at record highs, supported by signs that the Middle East conflict may be moving toward a resolution. Stronger-than-expected ADP employment data and AMD’s post-earnings gain also lifted chip stocks and broader market sentiment. The Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, and the Nasdaq advanced 2%. The U.S. dollar weakened broadly as investors became more optimistic that the Iran war could be nearing an end.
Gold climbed to its highest level in more than a week on Wednesday, supported by reports that the U.S. and Iran may be close to a peace agreement. The news eased concerns over higher inflation and prolonged elevated interest rates. Spot gold closed nearly 3% higher at $4,689.05 per ounce. Oil prices fell sharply to a two-week low as optimism grew that the Middle East war may soon end.
Key Events Today:
- 14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM MAR**
- 17:00 EU Retail Sales MoM MAR **
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 22:00 US Construction Spending MoM MAR **
Tomorrow:
- 08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final APR**
- 20:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls APR ***
- 20:30 Canada Employment Report APR **
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel MAY ***
Markets Analysis 07/05/2026
- Resistance: 1.1798/1.1821
- Support: 1.1701/1.1677
EURUSD rose 0.5% to 1.1754 as US-Iran deal hopes weakened the dollar and eased inflation concerns. A lower oil price backdrop also supported risk sentiment.
Analyst View: EURUSD is showing stronger recovery momentum as the dollar weakens, but buyers still need a clear break above 1.1798–1.1821 to confirm a stronger bullish extension.
Bias: Mildly bullish below 1.1800.
- Resistance: 1.3636/1.3657
- Support: 1.3547/1.3530
GBPUSD rose 0.4% to 1.3596 as the dollar weakened broadly. Improved risk appetite from US-Iran deal optimism supported sterling, though traders remain focused on US payrolls.
Analyst View: GBPUSD is maintaining a constructive rebound, but the pair is approaching a key resistance zone where buyers may face stronger selling pressure. A clean break above 1.3636–1.3657 would confirm stronger bullish continuation.
Bias: Mildly bullish.
- Resistance: 157.37/158.16
- Support: 155.78/155.00
USDJPY fell as the yen surged 1% to around 156.38, with traders suspecting another Japanese intervention. Dollar weakness and risk recalibration added pressure to the pair.
Analyst View: USDJPY remains highly sensitive to intervention risk, and the sharp rejection from higher levels shows buyers are becoming cautious. Unless price reclaims 157.37–158.16, rebounds may remain limited.
Bias: Short-term bearish.
- Resistance: 98.76/103.44
- Support: 91.19/87.41
WTI fell over 7% to around $95.08 as US-Iran peace hopes raised expectations that Hormuz could reopen. EIA crude inventories fell, but the decline was smaller than expected.
Analyst View: WTI has shifted into a corrective phase after losing momentum below the 98.76–103.44 resistance zone. Unless peace talks fail or Hormuz risks return, rebounds may face selling pressure near resistance.
Bias: Short-term bearish.
- Resistance: 4743/4789
- Support: 4650/4592
- Resistance: 79.82/81.23
- Support: 75.51/73.74
Gold rose nearly 3% to around $4,691.83 and may test $4,700, supported by a weaker dollar and easing concerns over prolonged inflation and high rates.
Analyst View: Gold has regained upside momentum after breaking back above the previous support zone. If buyers can hold above $4,650, the market may continue testing higher resistance, though profit-taking could appear near $4,743–$4,789.
Bias: Mildly bullish.
- Resistance: 50366/50936
- Support: 49112/48561
The Dow rose 1.15% to 49,864.23 as US-Iran deal optimism lifted market sentiment. Strong earnings and broad risk recovery also supported the index.
Analyst View: The Dow is regaining momentum after holding above support, but a stronger breakout still needs confirmation above 50,366–50,936.
Bias: Mildly bullish.
- Resistance: 28992/29484
- Support: 28216/27824
NAS100 jumped 1.67% to a record high, driven by AMD’s 17% surge and renewed AI-chip momentum. Nvidia and semiconductor stocks also supported the tech rally.
Analyst View: NAS100 remains the strongest major index, with AI and semiconductor momentum leading the rally. However, after a sharp vertical climb, short-term profit-taking risk may rise near 28,992–29,484.
Bias: Mildly bullish.
- Resistance: 82326/82866
- Support: 80028/79497
Bitcoin stayed near a three-month high around $81,421 as US-Iran deal hopes supported risk sentiment. However, gains faded after Strategy said it may sell some Bitcoin holdings to fund dividend and debt payments.
Analyst View: Bitcoin’s trend remains constructive, but the rejection near resistance shows buyers are becoming more cautious. If price continues to hold above $80,028–$79,497, the broader recovery structure remains intact.
Bias: Bullish above $80,028.
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