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Gold Breaks $4,800 — Profit-Taking Ahead of U.S. PCE?

Market Highlight 21/01/2026

U.S. stocks posted their biggest one-day losses in three months on Tuesday, as markets grew concerned that President Trump’s new tariff threats against Europe could signal a renewed surge in volatility, triggering heavy selloffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.76%, the S&P 500 declined 2.06%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.39%.

The U.S. dollar posted its largest single-day decline in more than a month after the White House issued threats towards Europe over Greenland’s future, sparking sharp selloffs in U.S. equities and government bonds and pushing the euro and the British pound higher. The dollar index plunged as much as 0.7% intraday, marking its steepest daily drop since mid-December, as investors grew increasingly concerned about their exposure to U.S. markets.

Gold prices surged to fresh record highs, breaking above $4,700 per ounce as escalating geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand. Spot silver also climbed past $95 for the first time. Spot gold rose 1.9% to $4,760.02 per ounce and extended gains this morning, briefly trading above $4,800. Oil prices advanced as well, supported by a temporary shutdown at a Kazakh oil field and expectations of stronger global economic growth, which could lift fuel demand.

 

Key Outlook 21/01/2026

The United Kingdom will release its December CPI and PPI reports today. Markets expect CPI to rebound from negative territory to a 0.3% monthly increase. Previous data showed November CPI unexpectedly cooled further, suggesting that inflation is decelerating faster than anticipated, reinforcing the outlook for the Bank of England to continue cutting interest rates.

 

Key Data and Events Today:

  • 15:00 GB CPI & PPI DEC ***
  • 17:00 IEA Oil Market Report **
  • 23:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM DEC **

 

Tomorrow:

  • 08:30 AU Unemployment Rate DEC **
  • 20:30 ECB Meeting Minutes ***
  • 21:30 US GDP & Core PCE Prices Q3 ***
  • 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

 

Markets Analysis 21/01/2026

 

EURUSD

20260121 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1773/1.1808
  • Support: 1.1664/1.1630

EUR/USD rebounds to 1.1711 as renewed “sell America” flows weigh on the dollar. Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland fuel geopolitical risk. Technically, price tests the 1.1773–1.1808 resistance zone, with 1.1664–1.1630 as key support.

 

GBPUSD

20260121 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3507/1.3538
  • Support: 1.3379/1.3350

GBP/USD rebounds towards 1.34, supported by broad USD weakness. UK CPI and PPI later today are key triggers for BoE expectations. The recovery is probing the 1.3507–1.3538 supply zone, while a loss of momentum could see a pullback towards 1.3379–1.3350.

 

USDJPY

20260121 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 158.88/159.47
  • Support: 157.53/156.93

USD/JPY slips to 158.28 as rising risk aversion fuels safe-haven demand for the yen. Trump’s tariff threats linked to Greenland have weighed on sentiment and the dollar. Price action is now oscillating around 157.53; a break lower could open the door to 156.93, while rebounds continue to struggle within the 158.88–159.47 supply zone.

 

US Crude Oil Futures (MAR)

20260121 US Crude Oil Futures (MAR) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 60.78/61.57
  • Support: 58.27/57.49

WTI trades near $59.61, supported by Kazakhstan supply disruptions and a softer dollar, but upside momentum fades below the $60.8–61.6 range, leaving the rebound fragile. A pullback could revisit $58.27, with $57.49 as the next support. Focus shifts to the IEA report, which may amplify short-term volatility.

 

Spot Gold

20260121 Spot Gold Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4863/4896
  • Support: 4757/4724

 

Spot Silver

  • Resistance: 97.73/99.33
  • Support: 92.45/90.83

Gold surges to a record $4,766 as tariff threats linked to Greenland and a sharply weaker dollar reignite safe-haven flows. Momentum remains firmly bullish above the $4,724–4,757 support zone, keeping $4,800 in sight. Any pullback is likely to attract dip-buying unless geopolitical tensions ease significantly.

 

Dow Futures

20260121 Dow Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 49184/49644
  • Support: 48136/47671

The Dow Futures slid 1.76% to their worst drop since October, as Trump’s tariff threats revive trade-war fears and trigger risk-off selling. Prices retreat towards the 48,136–47,671 support zone after failing near the 49,184–49,644 resistance band.

 

NAS100

20260121 NAS100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 25261/25407
  • Support: 24826/24643

The NAS100 slides 2.39%, breaking below its 50-day average as Trump’s tariff threats revive “sell America” flows and weigh on tech stocks. The index retreats towards the 24,826–24,643 support zone after failing near the 25,407–25,261 resistance band, with risk aversion keeping near-term volatility elevated.

 

BTC

20260121 BTC Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 91193/92787
  • Support: 84400/82873

Bitcoin slips below $91,000 as geopolitical tensions over Greenland intensify risk-off sentiment, with Trump’s NATO talks adding to political uncertainty. The price has broken below the 91,193–92,787 resistance band and is sliding towards the 84,400–82,873 support zone, keeping downside risks in focus. Renewed safe-haven flows into gold continue to weigh on crypto appetite.

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This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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