Market Highlight
U.S. President Trump said that imposing a 100% tariff on China would be unsustainable, while quarterly earnings from regional banks helped ease concerns over credit risks. U.S. equities rebounded on Friday, with the Dow up 0.52%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.53%, and the Nasdaq rising 0.52%. The U.S. dollar rose 0.17% on Friday but posted a 0.43% weekly decline. EUR/USD slipped 0.17% yet marked its most significant weekly gain in nine weeks.
Gold retreated after hitting record highs above $4,300/oz, dropping more than 2% intraday as a stronger dollar and Trump’s tariff remarks pressured the metal. Spot gold fell 1.8% to $4,248.73/oz, after briefly touching a record $4,378. Oil prices edged higher on Friday but recorded nearly a 3% weekly decline.
Key Outlook
This week, global financial markets will closely watch a series of critical economic releases, with the long-delayed U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in focus. Inflation figures from the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and Japan will also be released, shaping expectations for central bank policy paths. Today’s highlight is Germany’s September PPI, expected at -1.4% MoM (prior -2.2%), which may keep pressure on the euro but is unlikely to alter market expectations for the ECB to hold rates steady into year-end.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 14:00 EU GERMANY PPI YoY SEP **
- 22:00 US CB Leading Index MoM SEP **
Tomorrow:
- 20:30 CA CPI YoY SEP **
- 19:00 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks ***
Markets Analysis
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1703/1.1716
- Support: 1.1632/1.1619
EUR/USD slipped 0.17% to 1.1668 after last week’s strong rebound. Dollar demand picked up amid trade uncertainty and lingering U.S. government shutdown risks. From a technical perspective, the pair is consolidating above 1.1632 support, with upside potential toward 1.1703 if buyers defend the zone. A break below 1.1632 would expose 1.1600.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3494/1.3536
- Support: 1.3393/1.3359
GBP/USD is holding above 1.3400 as Fed rate-cut bets weaken the USD, cushioning the pair against dovish BoE expectations and fiscal risks. Technical upside remains capped by Fibonacci resistance near 1.3493, with immediate support at 1.3393. A break higher could open 1.3540, while sustained weakness below 1.3393 may shift momentum back to sellers.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 151.32/151.78
- Support: 150.30/149.83
USD/JPY steadied around 150.49 after a volatile week. The pair remains pressured as BoJ Governor Ueda signaled possible rate hikes, keeping yen demand supported. At the same time, U.S. government shutdown concerns weakened the dollar. Key resistance lies at 151.32, where rejection may trigger a pullback toward 150.30. A breakout above 151.32 could open room toward 152.00.
US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)
- Resistance: 57.68/57.94
- Support: 56.38/56.18
WTI crude settled at $57.54, up 0.14% on the day but logging a 3% weekly decline. Supply concerns were amplified by the IEA’s warning of persistent oversupply, while geopolitical sentiment was weighed down by news of a planned Trump-Putin summit over Ukraine. Technically, upside remains capped below $57.68, with risk skewed toward further declines toward $56.38 if selling pressure resumes.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4332/4383
- Support: 4215/4163
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 52.94/53.52
- Support: 50.46/50.00
Gold retreated nearly 2% to around $4,250 after peaking at a record $4,379. The pullback was driven by a stronger dollar and Trump’s softer tariff stance, though expectations for Fed rate cuts continue to provide underlying support. Technically, $4,215 remains key demand, while resistance is at $4,332. A rebound toward $4,300+ is favored if support is held.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 46418/46568
- Support: 45785/45638
The Dow Futures rose 0.52% to 46,191, rebounding as stronger bank earnings and easing credit concerns boosted sentiment. Financials gained 0.8% after suffering sharp losses earlier in the week. Technically, the index faces resistance at 46,418, with support at 45,785. A break above resistance could open room toward 46,600, while rejection may keep prices consolidating near support.
NAS100
- Resistance: 24958/25079
- Support: 24572/24453
NAS100 rose 0.52% to 22,680, lifted by strength in major tech names. Tesla climbed 2.5% and Apple gained nearly 2%, offsetting Amazon’s softness. Technically, the index faces resistance near 24,958 and support at 24,572. A break above resistance could trigger further upside, but failure may see renewed downside pressure back toward support.
BTC
- Resistance: 108941/109683
- Support: 105728/104973
Bitcoin fell 4.6% to $106,070, posting its second weekly loss of over 8% as U.S.-China trade tensions and credit risks eroded sentiment after last week’s $16B liquidation. Technically, price remains capped under $118,941 resistance, with risks of retesting $105K–104K support if selling pressure persists.
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