特朗普称与伊朗仍在磋商，日内关注欧元区通胀指标 | ATFX Malaysia

要点

* 特朗普称与伊朗谈判仍在继续，否认已暂停磋商，并预计将达成协议，而黎巴嫩宣布以色列与真主党达成部分停火协议。

* 今日关注重点：今日主要聚焦欧元区通胀，市场预计5月CPI同比将升至3.2%左右。经济学家普遍预计欧洲央行将在6月加息，如果数据超预期，则加息押注可能进一步得到确认，短线利多欧元。

全球市场回顾：

美国5月制造业活动超预期增长，达到四年来的最高。美国华尔街股市周一小幅上涨，继续创下新高，投资者聚集美伊和平谈判的进展。道指收涨0.09%，标普500指数涨0.26%，纳指涨0.42%。投资者消化中东和平谈判的最新进展，美元和美债收益率回升，现货金跌1.5%，收报每盎司4468.54美元。油价大幅反弹逾4%，此前伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社报导称，德黑兰已暂停与美国的间接谈判。

重要财经日历

17:00 欧元区5月CPI初值 ***

6月3日

04:30 API原油库存变动 ***
07:00 澳大利亚5月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
08:30 日本5月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
09:30 澳大利亚第一季度GDP ***
09:45 中国5月服务业及综合PMI **
15:55 德国5月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
16:00 欧元区5月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
16:30 英国5月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
16:30 日本央行行长植田和男讲话 ***
17:00 欧元区4月PPI ***
20:15 美国5月ADP就业人数变动 ***
21:45 美国5月服务业及综合PMI终值 **
22:00 美国5月ISM服务业PMI ***
22:30 EIA原油库存变化 **

【20260602 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1666/1.1683阻力
1.1593/1.1576支持

昨日震荡下跌后，周二亚洲早盘，欧元/美元小幅上涨至1.1635附近，但是中东局势不确定性限制了上涨空间。今日重点聚焦欧元区CPI，将成为欧央行下一次决议是否加息的直接参考。

分析师观点：欧元兑美元昨日因为美元的反弹而承压，当前交投在10日均线处，如果跌破该位意味着上周后半段的反弹失效，并可能再次以1.1600关口下方为目标，但是如果守住上述均线支撑有望测试1.1660上方，但是留意20日均线阻力。

方向：短线偏弱

英镑兑美元

1.3522/1.3564阻力
1.3386/1.3343支持

英国公众对未来通胀的预期在5月有所缓和，不过周一英镑表现不大，美伊紧张局势提振美元的情况下，英镑兑美元一度逼近1.3400关口但是获得支撑后收复大部分失地。

分析师观点：汇价连续两日在1.3410下方寻得支撑后反弹，目前继续维持在日图主要均线范围内交投，日内欧元区CPI也会间接提供指引。

方向：区间交投

美元兑日元

160.08/160.41阻力
159.39/159.06支持

日元周一再次走弱，美元兑日元再度接近可能触发干预的范围，维持在一个月高位附近，中东紧张局势暂时抵消了市场对干预的担忧而推高汇价。

分析师观点：美元兑日元昨日刷新4月底高位，多头进一步向160关键心理关口靠近，日内可能继续逼近但是留意该位存在干预的担忧，所以可能限制汇价的上行，不排除高位有所结利。

方向：高位谨慎

美国原油期货（7月）

94.97/96.92阻力
88.66/86.74支持

由于以色列军队与黎巴嫩真主党冲突，伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社报道称，德黑兰已停止与美国的间接谈判，原油周一涨超4%。不过特朗普最新表示磋商还在继续，所以可能削弱原油的反弹。

分析师观点：原油价格昨日止步七连跌，但是面对10日均线和20日均线分别在94美元和97美元的阻力，加上美伊谈判仍在进行，可能限制隔夜反弹的趋势。

方向：反弹遇阻

现货黄金

4531/4556阻力
4452/4419支持

现货白银

77.82/78.87阻力
72.62/71.80支持

随着伊朗紧张局势一度加剧通胀担忧并强化美联储年内加息押注，昨日黄金跌破4500美元，周二亚洲早盘，黄金延续承压聚焦中东局势的不确定性。

分析师观点：昨日黄金未能延续上周的两日连涨，面对美元的反弹和美伊局势不确定性而转跌，重新下破10日均线后聚焦4400美元会否成为目标。

方向：短线承压

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

51163/51274阻力
50797/50684支持

6月开局，美股三大指数均创收盘新高，不过由于美伊局势的不稳，股市涨幅较为温和，道指轻微上涨，继续维持51000关口上方。

分析师观点：道指昨日盘中先跌后回升，尾盘收于日内高位范围，所以当前多头继续具备继续推高价格的动能，聚焦是否能继续挑战51163/51274阻力。

方向：高位看涨

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

30620/30784阻力
30231/30105支持

隔夜虽然市场担忧中东局势的波动，但科技股延续强势，英伟达领涨科技股，市场受到新一代人工智能（AI）电脑芯片发布消息的提振。

分析师观点：NAS100将新高推升至30500上方，近期上行通道继续扩张，关注继续上望30620/30784阻力的空间，但是也留意在美国就业报告前以及观望美伊局势的情况下，大幅上涨的动能受限。

方向：高位看涨

香港恒生指数HK50

25564/25698阻力
25156/24988支持

港股昨日在6月开局升215点后，今早轻微低开3点，不过大型科网股和芯片股普遍走高，有望拉动大市延续上涨。HK50指数今早扩大了此前两日的反弹来到四日高位。

分析师观点：当前HK50指数正在测试10日均线的关键阻力，如果确认突破则有望摆脱近期低位区间，并以20日均线在25800附近为目标。

方向：短线反弹

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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