美股三大指数齐创新高，等待美国PCE物价和GDP指引 | ATFX Malaysia

要点

* 华盛顿否认了伊朗国家电视台有关双方已达成框架协议、将在一个月内恢复霍尔木兹海峡航运并解除美方对伊朗船只海上封锁的报导。

* 今日关注重点：今日重点关注美国两大数据，将直接影响美联储6月利率决议。市场预计第一季度GDP年化季率维持在2%增速。如果数据下修，经济放缓担忧加剧，市场可能重新评估美联储加息空间。美国4月核心PCE物价指数：预计年率将升至3.3%（前值3.2%），环比维持在0.3%左右。如果数据低于预期，加息压力将缓解，但如果高于预期则市场会进一步押注政策收紧，黄金和美股可能承压。

全球市场回顾：

随着伊朗和美国就停火谈判进展释放互相矛盾的信号，昨日美股三大指数全天窄幅震荡，不过收盘仍齐创新高，道琼斯工业指数受医疗保健和消费类股上涨提振，AI板块则在持稳中小幅上涨。道指收涨0.36%，标普500指数涨0.02%，纳指涨0.07%。美债收益率延续下滑，美元指数则连续温和反弹至三日高位。金价跌至两个月低点，受累于市场预期货币政策将收紧以遏制不断上升的通胀。面对最新的美伊局势原油价格进一步下跌至一个多月来的最低点，WTI原油收跌逾4%。

重要财经日历

15:20 欧洲央行行长拉加德讲话 ***
17:00 欧元区5月经济景气指数 **
20:10 美国4月营建许可 **
20:30 美国第一季度GDP和PCE价格指数 ***
20:30 美国4月核心PCE价格指数 ***
20:30 美国首次申请失业救济人数 ***
22:00 美国4月新屋销售 **

5月29日

00:00 EIA原油库存变化 **
07:30 日本4月失业率 **
15:55 德国5月失业率 **
16:20 英国央行行长贝利讲话 ***
20:00 德国5月CPI ***
20:30 加拿大3月GDP **

【20260528 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1655/1.1676阻力
1.1600/1.1584支持

地缘政治局势不明朗之际，昨日欧元兑美元连续两日走弱但是跌幅轻微，周四亚洲早盘，欧元/美元在1.1620附近交投。

分析师观点：技术上近几日汇价一直徘徊在10日均线处，日内美国PCE物价指数可能是带动突破的关键，如果向上突破则关注继续指向20日均线的1.1676处阻力，相反向下则关注1.1600关口下方支撑。

方向：短线偏弱

英镑兑美元

1.3480/1.3522阻力
1.3386/1.3343支持

由于市场对正在进行的美伊谈判持谨慎态度，美元走强，英镑兑美元延续下行。此前由于英国通胀和就业数据走软，促使交易员减少了对英国央行近期加息的预期。

分析师观点：英镑兑美元今早下探10日均线下方，如果日内收盘确认跌破该位，则目标会进一步指向1.3386/1.3343范围，聚焦今晚美国PCE物价指数和明日英央行行长贝利讲话是决定走势的关键。

方向：短线偏弱

美元兑日元

159.73/160.08阻力
159.39/159.06支持

随着美元走强，日元汇率跌至近四周低点，逼近上月日本当局出手干预时的水平，投资者正在评估伊朗局势再度紧张的影响。

分析师观点：汇价连续两日反弹后日内预计涨势将会温和推进，在向160关口靠近前偏向谨慎，留意在关键价位和美国PCE物价指数会否带来短线波动的加大。

方向：谨慎看涨

美国原油期货（7月）

95.00/96.52阻力
84.75/82.26支持

昨日WTI油价大跌逾4%至90美元下方，创4月22日以来的最低，投资者正等待美伊协议框架的最新消息，以结束双方冲突并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

分析师观点：WTI原油扩大连跌后跌破90美元关口，短线空头继续占据主导的情况下价格可能进一步向4月低点靠近，意味着向80美元靠近的可能，除非消息面向利好反转。

方向：短线承压

现货黄金

4541/4572阻力
4394/4363支持

现货白银

76.72/78.75阻力
72.17/70.17支持

跟随美伊和平谈判面临不确定性，黄金昨日延续下跌，徘徊在近两个月低点附近，盘中逼近4400美元，周四早盘，黄金价格在4430美元附近承压，市场关注今日的美国4月PCE通胀数据，以衡量美联储政策前景。

分析师观点：黄金在昨日下破此前逾一周的区间模式，所以聚焦短线压力继续站靠至4400美元下方的可能，尤其是美国通胀压力继续升温的情况下，3月底低位区间值得关注。

方向：短线承压

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

50806/50920阻力
50437/50321支持

医疗和消费股上涨推动道琼斯工业平均指数周三创下收盘新高，投资者权衡结束伊朗战争和平谈判中持续存在的不确定性并等待今日美国PCE物价。

分析师观点：道指昨日收盘创下新高，不过关注盘中高位也是本周一高位所在的50834，所以日内需要寻求该位的突破来扩大创新高的动能，美国PCE物价也是决定道指在高位方向的关键。

方向：高位谨慎

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

30286/30786阻力
29499/29006支持

美股由AI主导的反弹在昨日有所暂缓，不过纳指依然录得轻微反弹并继续创下高位，尽管信号矛盾但市场仍在定价美伊双方达成进展的可能性。

分析师观点：纳指昨日再创高位但是涨势温和，显示市场谨慎观望今晚美国的PCE物价指数，如果超预期升温将助长美联储加息预期，则可能影响纳指在高位的发挥。

方向：高位谨慎

香港恒生指数HK50

25776/25934阻力
24897/24736支持

隔夜反映中国概念股表现的金龙指数攀升1.05%，不过昨日跌逾1%的港股继续遭遇沽压，今早恒指低开近百点，HK50指数昨日收于4月8日以来的最低后今早扩大下行。

分析师观点：HK50指数今早直接下破上周以来的低位，创4月2日以来的最低逼近25000关口，如果跌势不能在该位获得支撑，则将考验24800下方价位。

方向：低位看跌

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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