美债收益率见顶回落，美股转红、金价买盘支撑 | ATFX

要点

日前，美国PCE通胀与ADP就业人数数据表现温和，缓和了美联储10月加息的预期概率：该概率从数据前的七成降至五成。
其他数据方面，昨晚美国9月ISM制造业PMI录得54.5，略低于预期；
初请失业金人数降至19.7万，显示就业市场仍具韧性。
美债收益率冲高至24年以来高位后回落, 美股三大指数小幅反弹。
但观望美国就业报告前, 升幅受限, 道指和纳指均上涨仅0.04%，收盘，标普500表现较优，涨幅为0.19%。

能源市场方面，受美伊局势与供应担忧推动，布伦特原油与WTI同步走高。贵金属黄金一度反弹至4184美元/盎司，白银报61.3美元/盎司。黄金高位靠近4200美元继续承压, 尽管加息预期降温，整体仍偏弱。市场观望晚间美国非农就业报告指引后市去向，利率预期的变化或使贵金属走势仍难以摆脱下行压力。

中国长假期间休市至下周三。香港股票市场方面，恒生指数开盘后延续近期整体弱势，持续下跌；开盘首小时便跌破24000点大关，跌幅一度超过2.6%。

今日关注：日间主要关注欧元区9月通胀初值，结果将指引欧央行利率方向。其后重点关注晚间美国就业数据与平均工资数据结果，以指引对美国经济与通胀动力的判断，并影响市场对10月美联储加息及美债收益率的预期，进而直接影响整体金融市场走势。

财经日历

时间 (GMT+8)	事件	重要性
	中国假期
17:00	欧元区9月核心CPI年率初值	**
20:30	美国9月非农就业人数	***

未来一周重要数据和事件（10月5日-10月9日，GMT+8）

周一：中国假期；澳大利亚、日本、德国、欧元区、英国、美国9月服务业及综合PMI终值；欧元区10月Sentix投资者信心指数；欧元区8月PPI月率及年率；美国9月ISM服务业PMI
周二：中国假期；欧元区8月零售销售月率及年率；美国8月贸易帐
周三：中国假期；美国API原油库存变动；德国8月工业产出月率；EIA原油库存变动
周四：美联储FOMC会议纪要；德国8月贸易帐；美国初请失业金人数
周五：加拿大9月就业人数变动及失业率；美国10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值

【20261002 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1313/1.1355 阻力
1.1176/1.1134 支撑

分析师观点：欧美走势仍受美债收益率与美国就业数据主导。短线偏向低位震荡，观望欧元区9月核心CPI年率初值以及美国9月非农就业人数。技术上若守住1.1176/1.1134支撑区并出现技术性修复，才有望展开反弹测试1.1313/1.1355 阻力；否则，下行压力仍占主导。

方向：美元走势主导, 低位徘徊

英镑兑美元

1.3274 / 1.3334 阻力
1.3118/1.3072支撑

分析师观点：汇价当前自低位有所修复，但仍未脱离下行通道。暂跌破1.3200，将打开进一步下行空间，目标指向1.3118；若能企稳并突破1.3274/1.3334，则有望展开更大幅度反弹。整体而言，短线走势偏向低位徘徊。

方向：美元走势主导, 低位徘徊，谨慎偏空

美元兑日元

158.66 / 159.05阻力
157.72 / 157.41 支撑

分析师观点：汇价在经历连续上涨后的技术性调整后，仍保持在关键支撑位之上。若能企稳并突破158.42，将有望重重返159.00方；若跌破 157.50，则可能打开进一步下行空间。整体来看，美元兑日元短线处于温和反弹阶段，但方向仍取决于美债收益率与日本央行政策信号。

方向：温和反弹，关注能否突破阻力

美国原油期货（10月）

95.64 / 97.77 阻力
91.44 / 88.78 支撑

分析师观点：短线动能有所增强，但能否稳固站上95.64 阻力上方仍是关键。若价格回落至 91.44 以下，则可能重新进入下行通道，目标指向88.78。整体来看，油价短线维持震荡偏强，方向仍取决于美伊谈判进展与美国就业数据。

方向：震荡偏强，关注能否突破阻力

现货黄金

4193 / 4228 阻力
4113 / 4086 支撑

现货白银

62.29 / 63.06 阻力
59.66 / 59.04 支撑

分析师观点：黄金近期受美债收益率高企与美元强势压制，反弹动能有限。

方向：美元走势主导, 谨慎偏空

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

51194 / 51564 阻力
50811 / 50332 支撑

分析师观点：道指在高位压力下保持一定韧性, 维持于51,194 下方，则可能重新测试 50,811 支撑, 晚间美就业数据影响短期道指波动, 整体走势主要留意美伊谈判进展与能源市场回落，道指成功企稳51,194将测试 10 日均线。

方向：温和反弹

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

30697 / 30805 阻力
30442 / 30356 支撑

分析师观点：整体来看，纳指走势偏向温和反弹，但需警惕美债收益率与宏观数据带来的波动。若能突破第一阻力，则有望进一步指向 30805；若跌破 30442 支撑，则可能重新测试 30356区间。

方向：留意前高, 短线偏向反弹

香港恒生指数HK50

24208/ 24321阻力
23946 / 23836 支撑

分析师观点：中国假期, 港股休市后，盘市早盘下挫, 但整体仍处低位测试。整体走势偏向低位尝试寻找支撑后反弹，但仍取决于外部市场波动与本地资金流入情况。

方向：低位试探支撑区

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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