美国出手扩大长债回购，黄金大涨突破4500美元 | ATFX

要点

* 美联储会议记录：通胀忧虑加深，许多官员称若通胀不回落，可能需要加息。不过昨日美国财政部宣布计划将长债回购操作规模翻倍，推动长债收益率走低。带动黄金和美股上扬，美元则加速回落。

* 据路透社，阿联酋决定暂停与伊朗的一切金融和经济往来，且通过霍尔木兹海峡的船舶通行仍进展缓慢，令投资者担忧中东紧张局势升级。

* 今日关注：澳大利亚7月失业率（预期维持在4.4%）。德国7月PPI(预期-0.3%，前值 0.6%) ：作为欧洲上游通胀的领先指标，将影响市场对于欧元区物价的判断。美国初请失业金人数（预期21万，前值20.9万），将影响对就业市场的判断。

全球市场回顾：

美国股市主要股指周三小幅收高，美国国债收益率下滑在很大程度上抵消了科技股的疲软。道指收涨0.22%，标普500指数涨0.21%，纳指涨0.16%。美元兑主要货币走低，跌至5月下旬以来最低。美国国债收益率在华盛顿介入缓解债券市场后下滑，带动金价大涨逾4%，创下两个半多月以来的新高。阿联酋与伊朗之间紧张局势升级，周三布伦特原油创下四周高点，WTI原油则在近三周高位处于守势。

重要财经日历

09:30 澳大利亚7月失业率 **
14:00 德国7月PPI **
20:30 美国初请失业金人数 ***
22:00 美国7月谘商会领先指标 **

8月21日（GMT+8）

07:30 日本7月CPI **
08:30 日本8月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 **
14:00 英国7月零售销售 **
15:55 德国8月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 **
16:00 欧元区8月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 **
16:30 英国8月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 **
21:45 美国8月制造业、服务业及综合PMI初值 ***

【20260820 行情分析】

欧元兑美元

1.1693/1.1737阻力
1.1657/1.1623支持

美国财政部宣布计划将长债回购操作规模翻倍，间接带动欧元兑美元大涨，触及逾两个半月以来的最高水平。

分析师观点：汇价昨日直接录得3月份以来的最大涨幅，当前有望继续以1.1700关口为目标，但需留意目前处于5月底以来的高位，经历大涨后，前期高位可能令多头变得谨慎。

方向：温和看涨

英镑兑美元

1.3626/1.3668阻力
1.3558/1.3516支持

美国财政部出手干预债券市场，且英镑获得英国通胀数据强劲支撑，英镑兑美元昨日大涨，创5月11日以来的最高位。

分析师观点：创7月底以来最大涨幅后，当前关注汇价能否尝试在1.3600关口上方企稳，若能企稳，则有望继续向5月高位发起挑战。

方向：温和看涨

美元兑日元

159.05/159.42阻力
157.87/157.50支持

美元/日元周三收盘下跌，创下自8月初干预以来的最大单日跌幅，并创下近两周的最低位，不过今早汇价尝试收复部分失地。

分析师观点：汇价昨日下行，打破了此前相对高位的盘整区间，但低位守住了158关口，因此可能在大跌后暂时提供喘息。

方向：调整

美国原油期货（10月）

85.68/86.35阻力
83.42/82.89支持

美国和伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡问题上陷入僵局，而美国商业原油库存连续第三周上升，WTI原油继续横盘调整，尾盘轻微收高。

分析师观点：原油昨日继续刷新7月底以来的高位，但是涨势连续呈现温和，显示多头动能欠缺，可能继续维持盘整模式。

方向：区间盘整

现货黄金

4535/4551阻力
4465/4450支持

现货白银

67.80/68.44阻力
65.67/65.17支持

财政部正在加大对长期证券的回购计划，现货黄金突破4500美元关口，创6月初以来新高；现货白银收涨5.8%至67美元。

分析师观点：黄金隔夜录得2月份以来最大涨幅，打破了此前区间模式。当前留意在4500美元关口上方的盘整，关键阻力进一步落在了4550美元附近。

方向：短线看涨

美国道琼斯工业指数期货US30

53640/53804阻力
53211/53084支持

在美国财政部宣布将至少对长期债券进行回购操作翻倍后，美股周三结束了三天的连跌，道指反弹逾百点。

分析师观点：道指昨日盘中一度触及53700上方后回吐部分涨幅，该位置继续充当目前主要阻力。在未脱离近期低位的情况下，反弹仍偏温和。

方向：温和反弹

美国纳斯达克指数NAS100

29856/29987阻力
29310/29183支持

随着美债收益率回落，隔夜大型科技股多数上涨，不过半导体与AI动量股表现不佳，拖累纳指整体表现，最终温和反弹。

分析师观点：纳指依然维持在逾一周低位区间，因此短线仍然偏于低位区间的整理，需要关注下方29310/29183支撑。

方向：动能偏弱

香港恒生指数HK50

25881/26049阻力
25675/25510支持

港股延续昨日升势高开284点，科网股和医药股多数造好。HK50指数昨日录得三日连涨，并创7月底以来的最大涨幅。

分析师观点：HK50指数昨日突破近一周的区间，技术上进一步积蓄动能，当前关注向上周高位发起测试的可能，聚焦26000关口附近的阻力。

方向：短线看涨

免责声明：本分析仅供参考，交易愉快！

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