(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryGeopolitical Volatility: President Trump claimed progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, with the media reporting that the U.S. had submitted a 15-point ceasefire proposal. However, Tehran denied any direct dialogue. Global markets remain volatile as traders weigh the uncertainties in the Middle East. Economic Impact: PMI data from major economies declined, signaling that the Iranian situation is beginning to impact the global economy. Soaring energy prices and heightened uncertainty are dampening economic activity. Today’s Focus: UK February CPI: Annual inflation is expected to hold at 3%, while the monthly rate may accelerate to 0.5% (prev. -0.5%). An upside surprise would further slash market expectations for a BoE rate cut. According to Reuters, Iran has informed the UN Security Council and the IMO that “non-hostile vessels” may pass through the Strait of Hormuz provided they coordinate with Iranian authorities. Keep a close watch on further developments. |
Global Market Review 25/03/2026
U.S. Equities: Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday in choppy trading. Investors are oscillating between fears of rising oil prices and hopes for a resolution to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. The Dow fell 0.18%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.37%, and the Nasdaq slid 0.8%. The USD and Treasury yields rose as investors dialled back expectations for a swift conclusion to the Middle East conflict.
Spot gold closed up 1.54% at $4,473.58/oz. Despite an intraday dip amid persistent tensions, prices recovered from their lows following positive headlines and technical rebound signals after a long losing streak. WTI crude settled slightly lower after a volatile session, as the market gauged conflicting narratives between Iranian officials and Trump’s claims that a deal might be near.
Key Events Today:
- 08:30 AU CPI FEB **
- 15:00 GB CPI & PPI FEB ***
- 17:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate MAR **
- 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **
Tomorrow
- 15:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence APR **
- 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 23:00 US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index MAR **
Markets Analysis 25/03/2026
- Resistance: 1.1667 / 1.1697
- Support: 1.1540 / 1.1510
The pair fluctuated narrowly below 1.1600 on Tuesday as the USD rebounded. High sensitivity to the Middle East and weak Eurozone PMIs led to a slight pullback.
Analyst View: EURUSD closed slightly lower but remains near its two-week high, hovering around the 20-day moving average (1.1600). If it maintains this level, the March 10 high of 1.1667 remains the target.
Bias: Neutral/Hovering around 1.1600.
- Resistance: 1.3484 / 1.3515
- Support: 1.3351 / 1.3319
Surveys show UK inflation expectations surged in March, likely heightening BoE concerns. Ahead of today’s CPI data, the Pound is holding above 1.3400.
Analyst View: The pair dipped yesterday but found support at major daily moving averages. Staying above 1.3400 keeps the short-term path open toward the March highs, with initial resistance at 1.3484.
Bias: Mildly Bullish above 1.3400.
- Resistance: 159.29 / 159.61
- Support: 158.28 / 157.97
The pair stabilized above 158.00 in Asia today, largely ignoring hawkish BoJ minutes which hinted at gradual rate hikes to combat oil-driven inflation risks.
Analyst View: After a failed attempt to break the 10-day moving average, price returned to range-bound trading. Expect continued consolidation between 158.00 and 159.00.
Bias: Consolidation within moving average ranges.
- Resistance: 91.32 / 94.96
- Support: 79.58 / 75.89
Oil prices edged lower for a second session late Tuesday following rumors of a potential ceasefire. However, deep uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of any talks continues to provide an underlying floor for prices.
Analyst View: Volatility narrowed yesterday, with trading confined to the 10 and 20-day moving averages. Without a major catalyst, range-bound movement is likely to persist.
Bias: Consolidating nearly $90.
- Resistance: 4761 / 4916
- Support: 4413 / 4255
- Resistance: 78.93 / 82.35
- Support: 67.86 / 64.39
Precious metals closed higher as hopes for a ceasefire weakened the USD. Gold snapped a 9-day losing streak, though gains were capped by rising Treasury yields. In Asian trading today, Gold rose 2.5% and Silver 3%, approaching their 10-day moving averages.
Analyst View: Gold broke the $4,500 psychological barrier, which may attract further buying toward the $4,750 resistance (10-day MA). However, hawkish Fed expectations may limit the upside.
Bias: Mildly Bullish above $4,500.
- Resistance: 46797 / 47392
- Support: 45464 / 44879
Conflicting signals—troop deployments vs negotiation rumors—kept Wall Street lower. Weaknesses in communication services and pressure on private credit also weighed on sentiment.
Analyst View: The Dow is attempting a rebound but remains trapped below the 10-day moving average at 46,500. Unless it breaks above this level, expect continued low-level consolidation.
Bias: Weak rebound potential below 46,500.
- Resistance: 24464 / 24737
- Support: 23854 / 23586
Major tech stocks were mixed as investors await clarity on the geopolitical front. Alphabet and Microsoft were the primary drags.
Analyst View: The index found support below 24,000, easing downward pressure. However, a meaningful recovery requires a breakout above the key resistance at the 10-day moving average near 24,400.
Bias: Weak rebound potential below 24,400.
72710/73730 Resistance:
69407/68370 Support:
Bitcoin edged lower on Tuesday, retreating from gains notched in the prior session, as investors gauged the prospect of a possible de-escalation in the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.
Analyst View: Yesterday, BTC pulled back slightly from its one-week high and is currently trading within a narrow range between the 10 and 20-day moving averages. If the 10-day moving average continues to act as key resistance, the price may experience an accelerated short-term downward correction. Watch for a potential return to levels below 69,000.
Bias: Mildly Bearish below 71,000.
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